In Paraguay, overweight was modeled among boys and girls under 5 years of age. Since international targets for excess weight generally aim to prevent it from increasing, the scenario sought to explore possible reductions. Variables related to health coverage, access to water inside the household, overcrowding, unmet basic needs, characteristics of the urban and peri-urban built environment, urban vegetation, and average temperature were considered.

These variables were prioritized because they integrate household conditions, access to services, social vulnerability, and environmental factors that may influence children’s nutritional health. Compared with other variables, those selected were the ones the model allowed to be modified in a counterfactual scenario and that could be associated with territorial or social interventions. The scenario estimated a reduction of 0.44 percentage points in overweight, reaching a final prevalence of 15.26%.

Estas variables fueron priorizadas porque integran condiciones del hogar, acceso a servicios, vulnerabilidad social y factores ambientales que pueden influir sobre la salud nutricional infantil. Frente a otras variables, se seleccionaron aquellas que el modelo permitió modificar en un escenario contrafactual y que podían asociarse a intervenciones territoriales o sociales. El escenario estimó una reducción de 0,44 puntos porcentuales del sobrepeso, alcanzando una prevalencia final de 15,26%.